The announcement is 11:00 CEST. Tap through for the contenders, the odds, and the names experts say have no chance.
Photo: Adam63/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)
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Photo: Gösta Florman/Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
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Doctors Without Borders at 4/1
The other humanitarian heavyweight on the board: the medical relief organization is second favorite with the bookmakers and a classic Nobel profile — it won the Peace Prize in 1999. Photo: Oxfam/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (6/1) and Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya (7/1) carry the political weight on the odds board. Prediction markets price both lower — but the committee has shocked the board before. Photo: President of Ukraine/Wikimedia Commons (CC0)
Long Shots: UNRWA, the Pope, Save the Children
UNRWA and Pope Leo XIV sit at 8/1, Save the Children at 9/1. The first U.S.-born pope draws interest for his dialogue and migrant advocacy — plus his headline-grabbing AI encyclical. Photo: Ericliu1912/Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
The International Space Station?! Yes, really. PRIO's expert shortlist names the ISS as "a rare symbol of global cooperation" — alongside Save the Children, Sudan's ERR, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the ICJ and the ICC. Photo: NASA/Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
Trump at 12/1 — "An Impossible Candidate" Trump says he settled eight wars. But PRIO's acting director Haakon Gjerløw told Reuters: "A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate." Prediction markets give him about 1%. Photo: The White House/Wikimedia Commons (public domain)
The Machado Episode Last year's prize went to Venezuela's Maria Corina Machado amid heavy Trump lobbying. Weeks later, she gave her gold Nobel medal to Trump at the White House — an episode experts say will shape this year's choice. Photo: ZiaLater/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)
Someone Who Can "Withstand Pressure" That's the bar, per PRIO's Gjerløw: the committee will be "mindful of picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump." Read: a grassroots humanitarian whose work is impossible to co-opt. Photo: Harald Krichel/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)
A Bigger Check This Year The prize money is reportedly rising to 12 million Swedish kronor for the prize's 125th anniversary — up 1 million. Mark it as reported: the Nobel Foundation hasn't officially confirmed the figure. Photo: Adam63/Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0)