The Nobel Peace Prize 2026 winner will be announced today, Friday, October 9, at 11:00 CEST (2:30 p.m. IST / 5:00 a.m. ET) at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo. The five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee has made its choice, but the world won’t know it until committee chair Jørgen Watne Frydnes steps up to the podium this morning.
Bookmakers have a clear favorite: Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the grassroots network of volunteers feeding and evacuating civilians in Sudan’s brutal civil war, sit at 3/1 (25% implied probability) on Oddspedia’s odds comparison tool, ahead of Doctors Without Borders at 4/1. But if there’s one thing the Nobel Peace Prize loves, it’s defying expectations — last year’s winner, Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado, wasn’t among the shortest-priced names in many markets.
When and how the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 announcement works
This year saw 287 nominations — 208 individuals and 79 organizations — down from 338 last year, according to the Norwegian Nobel Committee’s figures reported by international media. Nominations are kept secret for 50 years, so any name circulating publicly is technically unconfirmed, although nominators are allowed to disclose their own nominations.
That secrecy is precisely why the betting markets exist at all: with no official shortlist, oddsmakers and analysts must piece together the picture from publicly announced nomination claims, geopolitical developments and the profile of humanitarian work the committee has honored before. The award ceremony itself takes place on December 10, the anniversary of Alfred Nobel’s death.
The bookmakers’ favorite: Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms — neighborhood-level volunteer committees that run soup kitchens, medical posts and evacuations for civilians caught in Sudan’s devastating civil war — lead the bookmaker board at 3/1, per Oddspedia’s comparison of prices as of October 8. The group won the Rafto Prize and a Right Livelihood Award in 2025, and it appears on the annual shortlist published by the director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).
Doctors Without Borders follows at 4/1, with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 6/1, Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya at 7/1, UNRWA at 8/1, Pope Leo XIV at 8/1, and Save the Children at 9/1, according to the same odds comparison.
What the prediction markets say about the Nobel Peace Prize 2026
Prediction markets broadly agree with the bookmakers but weight things a little differently. On Kalshi, the regulated U.S. prediction exchange, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms led at 16%, followed by Mykola Kuleba — the founder of Save Ukraine, known for his work rescuing Ukrainian children separated from their families during the war with Russia — at 10%, and Save the Children at 8%, Kalshi News reported.
Polymarket traders priced the ERR at roughly 15–17% in the final days, with Kuleba at 9%, Save the Children at 8%, the International Court of Justice at 6% and Yulia Navalnaya at 5%, according to market data compiled this week. Notably, the top 12 names on Polymarket account for only about two-thirds of the implied probability — the market is wide open, with roughly a third of the money sitting on longer shots among the 287 nominees.
The experts’ shortlist — and why they say Trump won’t win
The annual Nobel predictions from PRIO’s director list gives the other major expert view. PRIO’s shortlist named Save the Children, Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court as leading possibilities — alongside an unconventional pick: the International Space Station, described as “a rare symbol of global cooperation.”
Donald Trump, who has campaigned loudly for the prize and insists he has settled eight wars, sits at 12/1 on Oddspedia. But experts are blunt about his chances. PRIO’s acting director Haakon Gjerløw told Reuters: “A sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate.” The leaders of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have said they nominated Trump, though those claims cannot be independently verified.
Gjerløw added that the committee will be “mindful of picking someone who can withstand pressure from Trump,” a telling line that captures how much last year’s controversy has shaped this year’s expectations.
Why the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize still hangs over today’s announcement
Last year’s prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado amid heavy public lobbying from Trump — and weeks later, Machado presented her gold Nobel medal to Trump at the White House, an extraordinary episode that blurred the lines between the prize and political theater.
That history is one reason analysts believe the committee may lean toward a grassroots humanitarian choice this year — a recipient whose work is self-evidently unimpeachable and hard for any political figure to co-opt.
The other names on the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 board
Pope Leo XIV, the first U.S.-born pope, draws interest at 8/1 for his advocacy of dialogue and migrant rights — and for his widely publicized AI encyclical. Trump has publicly called the pope “weak” for criticizing the U.S.-Iran conflict, adding a personal edge to the pontiff’s candidacy.
Beyond the headline names, the markets list a Qatari emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and Francesca Albanese alongside Trump at 12/1, underscoring just how fragmented the field is. With 287 nominees and only vague public signals, today’s announcement could just as easily produce a name almost nobody has discussed — which, for the Norwegian Nobel Committee, would be entirely on brand.
The prize money — reported, not official
The prize money has reportedly been raised to 12 million Swedish kronor (up 1 million) to mark the prize’s 125th anniversary, according to the akhbrna.ae report — but that figure has not been confirmed by the Nobel Foundation and should be treated as reported, not official.
More from Nobel week: Nobel Prize in Literature 2026: Anne Carson | Nobel Prize in Chemistry 2026: Kagan, Soai
Frequently asked questions
When is the Nobel Peace Prize 2026 announced?
The winner is announced today, Friday, October 9, 2026, at 11:00 CEST at the Norwegian Nobel Institute in Oslo — that’s 2:30 p.m. IST and 5:00 a.m. ET.
Who are the favorites for the Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Bookmakers make Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms the favorite at 3/1, ahead of Doctors Without Borders at 4/1, Volodymyr Zelenskyy at 6/1 and Yulia Navalnaya at 7/1, according to Oddspedia’s odds comparison as of October 8.
Can Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Oddsmakers give him roughly 12/1 odds, but experts are skeptical. PRIO’s Haakon Gjerløw told Reuters that “a sitting president waging a war against Iran is an impossible candidate.”
Who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year?
Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado won the 2025 prize. Weeks later she gave her gold Nobel medal to Donald Trump at the White House, an episode experts say will shape how the committee approaches this year’s pick.
This is a preview written before the announcement. Bookmaker odds and prediction-market prices are reported as of October 8, 2026, and will have moved. No winner is stated or implied — the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces its decision at 11:00 CEST today.
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