The Godzilla Minus Zero box office race starts today, Friday, Nov. 6, and the monster has a head start. Trade forecasts put Takashi Yamazaki’s sequel at roughly $30 million from 3,254 North American theaters this weekend, per Variety, with most trackers landing in a $25 million to $35 million range. Warner Bros.’ The Cat in the Hat opens the same day, and the numbers say it will finish second.

Every figure in this story is a forecast, not a result. Real grosses land Sunday, with studio estimates Saturday morning. But the shape of the weekend is already clear: a Japanese-language, R-rated monster sequel is about to beat a $92 million Warner Bros. family cartoon for the No. 1 spot.

We previewed this exact showdown two days ago, before Japan’s numbers were in and before the review scores settled: Cat in the Hat vs. Godzilla Minus Zero: November 6 box office showdown. What changed since then is everything around the forecast — a record first day in Japan, a Certified Fresh badge, and a final trailer that showed off King Ghidorah.

Godzilla Minus Zero box office forecasts: what the trades say

The forecast spread is tight, and that’s the story. Variety has Godzilla at about $30 million. Deadline puts it at $25 million to $30 million, with a global opening above $60 million. Boxoffice Pro goes wider, $25 million to $35 million, and Box Office Theory lands at $24 million to $33 million. Four different trackers, same message: this thing opens big.

If the middle of that range holds, it would be the biggest opening ever for distributor GKIDS, by a wide margin. Even a mid-$20 million debut would top the $13 million start of Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron, GKIDS’ previous best. The film is booked into every IMAX auditorium and premium large-format screen in the country, according to Deadline, which is a big swing for a foreign-language release. Deadline also reported the domestic marketing budget was under $10 million and mostly social media. Cheap push, huge pull.

There’s a franchise record on the line too. Per ScreenRant’s read of the Variety numbers, Godzilla Minus Zero would become the first Japanese Godzilla film ever to open at No. 1 at the domestic box office. It would also land just shy of Godzilla vs. Kong’s $32.2 million domestic debut — an American crossover with a far bigger budget. The original, Godzilla Minus One, opened to $11.4 million in 2023. A $30 million weekend would nearly triple that.

Japan gave Godzilla Minus Zero box office momentum first

The Japan numbers are real, not forecast, and they’re the reason the trades sound so confident.

Godzilla Minus Zero opened in Japan on Tuesday, Nov. 3 — Godzilla Day, the anniversary of the original film’s 1954 release — and took in ¥910 million, about $5.7 million, on its first day, with more than 590,000 admissions. Toho called it a record first day for the franchise, though Deadline noted it could not independently verify that claim, and pointed out the figure trails the ¥1.64 billion ($11.1 million) first day of Demon Slayer: Infinity Castle in July 2025. Local forecasts still put the final Japan total above ¥10 billion, roughly $63.2 million.

The film opens this weekend in 60 territories on 17,000 screens, according to Deadline, including Australia, Brazil, Mexico, France, Germany, the U.K. and Spain. Italy and South Korea aren’t in this round. Add the international markets to the North American range and Deadline’s global opening forecast clears $60 million.

The film is also the first Japanese production shot entirely in Japan for IMAX. No Thursday preview grosses had surfaced in trade reporting by Friday morning, so the first hard U.S. number will be the Friday gross.

The Cat in the Hat has its own problem

The Cat in the Hat was supposed to be the safe bet. A beloved Dr. Seuss book, a $92 million animated feature from Warner Bros. Pictures Animation, Bill Hader voicing the Cat, and a clear runway to Thanksgiving with almost no family competition. The forecast says otherwise.

Variety puts the Cat at $20 million to $25 million from about 4,000 venues. Boxoffice Pro is lower, $15 million to $20 million, and Box Office Theory lower still at $12 million to $17 million. One independent tracker, Todd Thatcher, splits the difference at $22.5 million. If the $20 million to $25 million range holds, MovieWeb noted it would be the lowest domestic opening for a major Dr. Seuss adaptation on record.

Reviews didn’t help. The Cat debuted at 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, with 11 of 24 reviews positive, according to Global Box Office on Nov. 4, and a 47 on Metacritic from 11 critics. Early notices called it flat, with little of the book’s oddball style. Boxoffice Pro said tracking had been sinking into release week, with ticket sales staying static.

The stakes go past one weekend: this is the first feature from Warner Bros. Pictures Animation, meant to launch a shared Dr. Seuss universe — a Thing One and Thing Two spinoff and an Oh, the Places You’ll Go! adaptation set for March 2028. A soft opening doesn’t kill that plan, but it makes the next pitch harder. Hader’s voice cast includes Quinta Brunson, America Ferrera, Xochitl Gomez and Tiago Martinez, with Matt Berry as the Fish and Giancarlo Esposito in support. Erica Rivinoja and Alessandro Carloni direct. The 2003 live-action Cat, starring Mike Myers, opened to $38.3 million against a $109 million budget and was still seen as a disappointment. This version needs to clear a lower bar, and it might still miss it.

Reviews: critics love Godzilla, shrug at the Cat

The gap between the two films gets widest here. Godzilla Minus Zero is Certified Fresh at 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, based on 84 reviews, per the site’s own announcement on Nov. 5. It debuted at 95% on 22 reviews after the New York Film Festival premiere on Sept. 26, briefly touched 97%, then cooled as more critics weighed in. The first film sits at 99% on more than 200 critics, so the sequel trails its predecessor — and still clears the bar by miles.

Collider’s Victoria Luxford gave it a perfect 10 out of 10, calling it “a perfect sequel.” The film picks up in 1949, a few years after the first movie, following the Shikishima family as a new catastrophe hits just as their lives return to normal. It runs 135 minutes, carries an R rating for violent content and bloody images — the first Godzilla film ever rated R — and its final trailer, released Nov. 5, gave fans their first look at King Ghidorah. The Metascore sits at 77 from 25 reviews.

One film has critics, fans and a record Japan opening behind it. The other has a famous hat and a shrug. For context on how another recent opener performed against expectations, see our Wildwood box office report: Wildwood box office opening weekend.

What to watch this weekend

Three numbers decide the story by Monday. First, the Friday gross: clear $11 million on day one and the $30 million weekend is in reach. Second, the Cat’s Saturday hold — family films live or die on Saturday matinees. Third, the IMAX share, with Godzilla holding every IMAX screen in the country.

Walk-up business is the wild card. Godzilla’s marketing was small and mostly social, so word of mouth has to do the heavy lifting. The Cat has the bigger theater count and the family audience, but it needs parents to pick it over a monster movie their kids are already talking about.

By Sunday, we’ll know if the first Japanese Godzilla film ever to top the U.S. box office did it on its first try. Check back for the studio estimates.

FAQ

How much is Godzilla Minus Zero expected to make this weekend?

Forecasts cluster around $30 million domestic — Variety says about $30 million from 3,254 theaters, Deadline says $25–30 million, Boxoffice Pro says $25–35 million. These are projections, not results. Real numbers arrive Sunday.

How did Godzilla Minus Zero do in Japan?

It opened Nov. 3 with ¥910 million, about $5.7 million, on its first day, with more than 590,000 admissions. Toho called it a franchise record, though Deadline said it couldn’t verify that claim. Local forecasts put the final Japan total above ¥10 billion.

What’s the Rotten Tomatoes score for Godzilla Minus Zero?

89% Certified Fresh, based on 84 reviews as of Nov. 5. It started at 95% on early reviews after its New York Film Festival premiere, then cooled as more critics filed. The first film holds 99%.

How much is The Cat in the Hat expected to open to?

Variety forecasts $20–25 million from about 4,000 theaters; Boxoffice Pro says $15–20 million. Critics gave it 45% on Rotten Tomatoes, and its $92 million budget (per Variety) means a soft start would sting.