Nike Stock Sinks as Sneaker Giant Warns of Bigger Sales Slump and Job Cuts

Nike’s latest Nike stock earnings forecast landed with a thud on Wall Street. Shares of the sneaker giant fell roughly 8-9% in early trading Friday, October 2, after the company reported fiscal first-quarter results and warned that fiscal 2027 revenue will decline by a high single-digit percentage — far steeper than the roughly 2% decline analysts had expected, according to Reuters as reported by TheStreet. The selloff came as investors absorbed both the gloomy outlook and a new restructuring plan that includes job cuts.

Nike Stock Earnings Forecast: A Mixed Quarter Meets a Grim Outlook

The quarterly numbers themselves were a mixed bag. Nike reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $11.21 billion, down 4% from a year earlier and below the roughly $11.32 billion consensus estimate, while earnings per share of $0.48 beat the $0.44 estimate, according to figures reported by TheStreet via CNBC and Reuters. But it was the company’s forward guidance, not the quarter’s results, that spooked investors: a projected high-single-digit percentage revenue decline for fiscal 2027 suggests the turnaround effort is running into deeper trouble than Wall Street had priced in.

Greater China remained the most painful spot on the map. Sales in the region fell 26% on a constant-currency basis, the reported figures showed, underscoring how far Nike’s recovery has yet to go in one of its most important markets. The region’s weakness, combined with soft demand elsewhere, left little for bulls to cling to once management laid out the year ahead.

Greater China Sales Fall 26% as Turnaround Drags

The 26% constant-currency drop in Greater China stood out even in a quarter full of disappointments. Analysts and investors have watched the region closely as a barometer of Nike’s brand health, and the steep decline — attributed to the figures reported by TheStreet via CNBC/Reuters — signaled that the company’s efforts to reignite demand there are still in the early stages. With overall revenue down 4% to $11.21 billion, the China shortfall carried outsized weight in the company’s quarterly miss against the roughly $11.32 billion consensus.

The report arrived in the middle of a busy earnings season for consumer-facing giants. Micron’s recent earnings beat and massive $150 billion backlog showed investors are still rewarding companies with clear momentum — a contrast that made Nike’s cautious guidance look even weaker by comparison.

“Pace” Restructuring Targets $2.5 Billion in Savings, Job Cuts Starting in 2027

Alongside the earnings, CEO Elliott Hill unveiled “Pace,” a restructuring program targeting $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031, according to TheStreet, reporting via CNBC. The plan includes job cuts starting in 2027, following two rounds of reductions already carried out this year. The company framed the initiative as a way to reset its cost base and sharpen its competitive position, but the announcement added to the dour tone of the day: a deep sales forecast paired with fresh layoffs is rarely the combination that rallies a stock.

For a company that once defined athletic footwear’s growth story, the restructuring marks a stark shift in posture — from expansion to retrenchment. The $2.5 billion savings target through fiscal 2031 suggests management expects the cost-reset to be a multi-year process, not a quick fix.

Why the Nike Stock Earnings Forecast Rattled Wall Street

Analyst reaction was swift and unsparing. Morgan Stanley called the quarter “likely the year’s high-water mark,” kept its Underweight rating on the stock, and cut its price target to $27, TheStreet reported. The firm’s own valuation work implies a stock price near $20 — an assessment offered as analyst opinion, not a forecast of fact. The message from the bank’s analysts was that the worst may not be behind Nike, but ahead of it.

The plunge also stood out against a broadly upbeat market session. Stocks rallied Friday as a weak September jobs report collapsed the odds of an October Fed rate hike, lifting the S&P 500 — which made Nike’s roughly 8-9% slide look even more company-specific. When the broader market is rising and a household name falls that hard, investors tend to read it as a verdict on the company, not the economy.

For now, the question hanging over the stock is whether management’s high-single-digit decline forecast proves conservative enough — or whether, as Morgan Stanley’s skepticism implies, the bottom of Nike’s sales slump is still out of reach. Investors will get their next data point when the company reports fiscal second-quarter results later this year.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Nike stock fall on October 2?

Nike shares fell roughly 8-9% in early trading Friday, October 2, after the company reported fiscal first-quarter results and forecast that fiscal 2027 revenue will decline by a high single-digit percentage — far worse than the roughly 2% decline analysts expected, according to Reuters as reported by TheStreet. The company also announced a restructuring with job cuts, adding to the negative reaction. Exact intraday figures vary across outlets, so reports of the decline are approximate.

What is Nike’s fiscal 2027 earnings forecast?

Nike forecast that fiscal 2027 revenue will decline by a high single-digit percentage, a much steeper drop than the roughly 2% decline Wall Street had expected. The guidance came alongside fiscal first-quarter results showing revenue of $11.21 billion, down 4% and below the roughly $11.32 billion consensus, with Greater China sales down 26% on a constant-currency basis, per figures reported by TheStreet via CNBC and Reuters.

Is Nike cutting jobs?

Yes. CEO Elliott Hill announced a restructuring plan called “Pace” targeting $2.5 billion in savings through fiscal 2031, with job cuts starting in 2027, according to TheStreet via CNBC. The cuts would follow two rounds of reductions already carried out this year.

What did Morgan Stanley say about Nike stock?

Morgan Stanley called the fiscal first-quarter results “likely the year’s high-water mark,” maintained its Underweight rating, and cut its price target to $27, TheStreet reported. The bank’s own valuation work implies a stock price near $20 — but that is analyst opinion, not an established fact, and price targets reflect one firm’s view of the company’s prospects.