Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order on Tuesday declaring a state of emergency in 25 north Florida counties as Tropical Depression Nine Isaias — the system forecast to become the Atlantic season’s first hurricane — churns in the Gulf and tracks toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.
The declaration, reported by the Tallahassee Democrat, covers counties stretching from Escambia in the far west to Baker in the east, and lets the Florida Division of Emergency Management begin staging disaster-response resources before the storm’s expected arrival later this week.
DeSantis Declares Emergency in 25 Counties
Executive Order 26-202, signed Tuesday, activates emergency powers across Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington counties.
“Today, I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency ahead of potential impacts from Tropical Depression 9,” DeSantis said in a statement. “This order will allow the Florida Division of Emergency Management to stage critical preparedness resources and ensure Florida is ready to respond.”
State emergency officials are mobilizing generators, fuel, flood barriers, bottled water, shelf-stable meals, tarps and sandbags to staging areas in Tallahassee and Santa Rosa County for rapid deployment, according to the Tallahassee Democrat.
Officials warned that impacts could extend well beyond wherever the storm makes landfall. North Florida could see heavy rainfall, damaging winds, coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes. Emergency managers are particularly concerned about flash flooding because recent weeks of significant rainfall have left soils saturated and unable to absorb more water.
Tropical Depression Nine Isaias: Current Forecast Track
Tropical Depression Nine formed in the southwestern Gulf on Tuesday afternoon, according to the National Hurricane Center. In its 2 a.m. ET Wednesday advisory, the NHC placed the depression near latitude 22.1 north and longitude 95.0 west — in the Bay of Campeche — moving east at about 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and described it as “forecast to quickly strengthen.”
The NHC expects the depression to become a tropical storm early Wednesday, taking the name Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs), which would make it the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. It is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday, with winds reaching about 85 mph, and could briefly become a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds by Friday, according to USA Today‘s reporting on the NHC forecast.
On the forecast track, the system is expected to pass north of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, turn sharply northeast by Friday, and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast late Friday into early Saturday. The NHC’s official track calls for landfall overnight on Friday, Oct. 9, most likely somewhere between New Orleans and Destin, Florida.
No storm watches or warnings had been issued as of Tuesday evening, but the NHC expects to begin issuing them for the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Forecasters are urging residents from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend to closely monitor the forecast and have a hurricane plan in place.
What Impacts Are Expected From Tropical Depression Nine Isaias?
According to the National Hurricane Center’s key messages, there is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge along portions of the northern Gulf Coast. The system is expected to grow significantly as it nears land, particularly on its eastern side.
- Rainfall: 3 to 6 inches, with localized totals up to 10 inches, across the central U.S. Gulf Coast from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle from Friday through the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, are possible.
- Wind: Gusty winds and hurricane-force winds are possible near the center as the storm approaches the coast; damaging winds could extend well inland.
- Storm surge and surf: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected, with coastal flooding possible along the northern Gulf.
- Tornadoes: The storm could spin up isolated tornadoes as its rainbands lash the coast.
The NHC notes there is significant uncertainty in exactly where the storm makes its northeast turn and how fast it moves toward the coast — the stronger the system gets, the faster it is likely to move toward land.
There is also a chance the storm weakens slightly as it nears the Gulf Coast due to increasing vertical wind shear, but the NHC still expects it to be a dangerous hurricane at landfall.
AccuWeather: Warm Gulf Water Fueling Rapid Strengthening
AccuWeather meteorologists say the system is organizing faster than expected. “The storm is already becoming better organized faster than expected, and the environment around it is becoming increasingly favorable for strengthening,” AccuWeather hurricane expert Nicholas Arman told USA Today, noting that warm Gulf water temperatures in the 80s will provide plenty of fuel.
The NOAA G-IV jet is currently sampling the environment around the storm, and special upper-air soundings are being deployed over the south-central U.S. — data that should yield more reliable track and intensity guidance, the NHC said.
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva cautioned that increasing wind shear may limit strengthening and could distort the storm as it drifts north-northeast, but still raised the chance it becomes a hurricane to 45 percent.
The storm is already disrupting the energy sector: Shell is evacuating nonessential personnel from six offshore platforms, while BP is removing nonessential workers and securing its offshore facilities, the companies said Tuesday, according to CNN.
Why Tropical Depression Nine Isaias Could Make History
If Isaias reaches hurricane strength after Thursday, it would break a record that has stood for 121 years. Oct. 8, 1905, is the latest date on record for the first Atlantic hurricane of a season, according to National Weather Service data reported by Gizmodo.
The 2026 season has been exceptionally quiet because of a likely record-strong El Niño, which increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin and makes it harder for tropical cyclones to organize, CNN reported. Through early October, the Atlantic had produced eight tropical storms and zero hurricanes — well below the average of about 11 named storms, including five hurricanes and two major hurricanes, expected by this point in the season.
That makes the expected formation of Tropical Depression Nine Isaias a closely watched moment: whether it becomes the season’s first hurricane — or whether the shear wins out — will decide whether 2026 enters the history books for the latest first hurricane in more than a century.
FAQ
Where is Tropical Depression Nine right now?
As of the National Hurricane Center’s early Wednesday advisory, Tropical Depression Nine was in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Bay of Campeche), near 22.1°N, 95.0°W, moving east at about 5 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. It is forecast to drift east, then turn northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by Friday.
When will Tropical Depression Nine become Tropical Storm Isaias?
The National Hurricane Center forecasts the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm early Wednesday, Oct. 7, at which point it will take the name Isaias — the ninth named storm of the 2026 Atlantic season. It could become a hurricane by Thursday and a Category 2 hurricane by Friday.
Which Florida counties are under the state of emergency?
Gov. Ron DeSantis’s executive order covers 25 north Florida counties: Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Wakulla and Washington.
When and where could Isaias make landfall?
The NHC’s official forecast calls for landfall overnight on Friday, Oct. 9, most likely somewhere between New Orleans and Destin, Florida. The exact location remains uncertain, and forecasters say impacts will extend well beyond the landfall point, so residents from Louisiana to Florida’s Big Bend should monitor updates.
Sources: Tallahassee Democrat, National Hurricane Center, USA Today, Gizmodo, CNN
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.