The Ford Hyundai Q3 2026 sales forecast from Cox Automotive paints a bruising picture for Detroit: Ford is expected to sell 504,172 vehicles in the third quarter, down 7.1% from a year earlier — falling behind Hyundai Motor Group, which is forecast to climb 6.5% to 511,421 units, according to Asianet Newsable, reporting on the Cox Automotive forecast.
The projected reshuffle marks a symbolic moment for the US auto industry. Ford, one of the original “Detroit 3,” is set to be outsold by Hyundai in a quarter for the first time in recent memory — part of a broader shift in which Asian brands are expected to capture more than half of all new-vehicle sales in America for a second straight quarter.
Ford vs Hyundai: The Q3 2026 Sales Forecast Numbers
Cox’s forecast, released September 24, puts Ford’s third-quarter total at 504,172 — a 7.7% decline from the second quarter as well as the 7.1% year-over-year drop. Hyundai Motor Group’s 511,421 is up 4.4% from Q2 and 6.5% from Q3 2025. The gap of roughly 7,000 vehicles is small, but its symbolism is enormous: the company that invented the assembly line, outsold by a Korean rival on home soil.
The rest of the chart tells the same story. General Motors is expected to remain the top-selling US automaker with 671,706 vehicles despite a 5.2% decline. Toyota stays in second at 642,707, up 2.2%. Stellantis is forecast at 317,330, down 1.3%. And Tesla’s US sales are expected to slump more than 30% to 123,880 — one of the steepest drops in the table.
Why Ford Is Falling Behind
Ford’s weakness follows a soft second quarter in which US sales fell 10%, partly because the company has been phasing out vehicle models, according to the Cox analysis. The forecaster expects Ford’s year-to-date sales through September to fall 8.8%, while GM’s are forecast to decline 6.2% — meaning the bleeding at Ford is sharper than at its crosstown rival.
Investors have noticed. Ford shares fell 1.2% when the forecast landed, marking a fifth straight session of decline, while GM dropped more than 2%, according to Asianet Newsable’s market reporting. Production disruptions are adding to the pain: Reuters reported Ford canceled F-150 production crews at its Dearborn Truck Plant from September 24 through September 29 over a supplier problem and plant repairs, with F-Series sales already down about 11% through August.
Hybrid Demand Is Powering the Asian Surge
Cox attributes the Asian brands’ gains to a shift in what Americans are buying. US consumers are increasingly moving toward hybrid vehicles and passenger cars — segments where Asian automakers have traditionally held a stronger position. Honda, for instance, is forecast to jump 12.2% year over year to 402,580, and Nissan-Mitsubishi is expected to inch up 1.2% to 245,973.
Asian automakers are expected to account for more than half of US new-vehicle sales for a second straight quarter — a run of dominance that reflects product portfolios built around exactly the fuel-efficient, lower-cost vehicles buyers want right now.
The Detroit 3 Hit a Record Low
Together, the Detroit 3 — Ford, GM, and Stellantis — are expected to hold just over 36% of the US market in Q3, their lowest share on record. For an industry that once commanded nearly the entire American market, the figure captures the scale of the transformation: a century of domestic dominance reduced to a little more than a third.
The quarter’s EV picture is equally bleak for legacy players: alongside Tesla’s forecast 31% plunge, electric upstart Rivian is dealing with its own crisis — a record 98,828-vehicle recall. Cox’s September report, which also raised the industry’s full-year sales forecast, suggests the Asian-brand share gains are structural rather than a one-quarter blip. Read our coverage of the Rivian recall over its rearview camera bug, the largest in the company’s history.
Ford Hyundai Q3 2026 Sales Forecast: FAQs
Q: Will Ford really sell fewer cars than Hyundai in Q3 2026?
A: According to Cox Automotive’s forecast, yes. Ford is projected at 504,172 vehicles (down 7.1%), behind Hyundai Motor Group at 511,421 (up 6.5%). These are forecasts, not final sales, which automakers will report in early October.
Q: Who is the top-selling automaker in the US for Q3 2026?
A: General Motors is forecast to remain No. 1 with 671,706 vehicles despite a 5.2% year-over-year decline, according to Cox Automotive.
Q: Why are the Detroit 3 losing market share?
A: Cox points to the consumer shift toward hybrids and passenger cars, where Asian brands hold stronger positions; Ford specifically suffered a soft Q2 after phasing out models, plus recent F-150 production disruptions. The Detroit 3’s combined Q3 share is forecast at just over 36% — a record low.
Q: How badly is Tesla expected to do in Q3 2026?
A: Cox forecasts Tesla’s US Q3 sales at 123,880, down more than 30% year over year, with year-to-date sales down 18.9%.
