Wall Street’s third-quarter earnings season begins in earnest today, October 13, when four of the six largest US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo — report results before the market opens. The timing is delicate: Treasury yields have climbed to multidecade highs, bank stocks have slumped from summer peaks, and investors want to know whether one of the industry’s most profitable stretches in years can survive the rate shock.
What the banks are expected to report
Third-quarter earnings are expected to rise as much as 20% from a year earlier for the largest banks, with investment banking and trading revenue significantly higher than in the previous period and no signs of deterioration in the credit portfolio, Reuters reported on October 8.
FactSet estimates compiled by Morningstar give a bank-by-bank picture:
- JPMorgan Chase: $5.93 estimated EPS vs. $5.07 in Q3 2025 (Q2 EPS was $7.70)
- Bank of America: $1.10 vs. $1.06 a year ago (reports October 14)
- Citigroup: $2.65 vs. $1.86 (Q2 EPS was $3.15)
- Wells Fargo: $1.85 vs. $1.66 (Q2 EPS was $2.00)
- Goldman Sachs: $12.86 vs. $12.25 (Q2 EPS was $20.98)
- Morgan Stanley: $2.93 vs. $2.80 (reports October 14)
LSEG estimates cited by Reuters show a similar pattern, calling for JPMorgan to earn $5.94 per share versus $5.07 a year ago, Citigroup $2.41 versus $2.24, Wells Fargo $1.85 versus $1.66, and Goldman Sachs $12.44 versus $12.25 — implying growth of roughly 17%, 8%, 11%, and 2%, respectively.
The year-over-year growth story is real, but it comes with an asterisk: profits are expected to decline from the exceptional second quarter, when elevated trading activity, corporate transactions, and financing revenue supported unusually strong results. As Morningstar notes, all six banks served as joint bookrunners for the SpaceX IPO, through which the company raised $85 billion on June 12 — one reason the second quarter set such a high bar.
Reuters Breakingviews adds color: the six banks are coming off a peak $51 billion trading-revenue haul last quarter. Analysts doubt they can all keep that pace. Trading revenue is expected to increase a healthy 12% year over year, but that would be a third of last quarter’s 36% rise. Net interest income from traditional banking is expected to rise 10% from a year earlier, based on Visible Alpha data. There is wide divergence by bank: Bank of America is tipping lower while Goldman rises 30% on trading. And Bloomberg estimates compiled by BeInSure put third-quarter equities trading revenue at the biggest banks at nearly $19 billion.
The rate-shock question
The central worry is what higher Treasury yields are doing to the banks’ businesses. The KBW Bank Index is down 13% from its August peak close and down 6% in the third quarter, Reuters reports. Five major Wall Street banks have lost approximately $270 billion in combined market value from their summer peaks, according to Bloomberg estimates cited by BeInSure, and institutional investors expecting banking stocks to outperform have fallen to 35%.
“Higher interest rates slowed capital markets activity late in the quarter,” Reuters notes. “Investors are focused on whether higher rates will also drive up deposit costs and weaken credit quality.”
JPMorgan expects mid-to-high teens percentage gains in both investment banking fees and trading revenue, while Bank of America anticipates its investment banking fees will drop at least 10%, according to Reuters reporting summarized by Traders Union. Goldman Sachs boss David Solomon faces a sharper question: analysts expect his investment bank to face the steepest overall reversal among the group next year, with an outright 8% decline penciled in, per Reuters Breakingviews.
Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager at Angel Oak Capital Advisors, told Reuters she thinks investors will look for guidance on credit growth and deposit costs. “We don’t expect any big deposit flows with customers looking for higher yields or any drastic rise in deposit costs,” Pate said. Despite the recent rise in rates, analysts do not expect banks to face the kind of unrealized losses in their securities portfolios seen during the 2023 banking crisis: “Most banks have since reduced the duration of their portfolio and managed the risk,” Pate added.
In a note to clients, UBS bank analyst Erika Najarian linked bank stocks’ weakness to the spike in yields and added that investors will need reassurances that the capital markets pipeline remains robust, loan growth is on track, and a rise in deposit costs is contained, Reuters reports.
Why these reports matter beyond banking
Because banks sit at the center of lending, dealmaking, and consumer spending, their results double as a health check on the US economy. The big-bank reports are traditionally treated as the kickoff of earnings season because they give the first broad read on credit conditions, interest rates, and consumer health. FactSet expects S&P 500 earnings growth of roughly 29% year over year for the third quarter — which would be the third straight quarter above 25% — so the bar is high across the market, not just for banks.
Citizens Financial Group president Brendan Coughlin, whose bank reports later in the week, captured the mood: “Right now, you look out the window, and it feels okay. I think this is more about the risks than what’s happening out the window,” as quoted by BeInSure.
The reports will also provide the first detailed assessment of how the recent bond market selloff is affecting major US financial institutions — and whether the “durable, all-season revenue” that Wall Street’s biggest lenders claim their trading businesses produce can hold through a rate shock, as Reuters Breakingviews puts it.
Read next: PepsiCo’s Q3 2026 earnings and guidance cut
Frequently Asked Questions
Which banks report Q3 earnings on October 13, 2026?
JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo report before the market opens on October 13. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley follow on October 14, according to Reuters.
How much are the big banks expected to earn in Q3 2026?
FactSet estimates call for JPMorgan at $5.93 EPS (up from $5.07 a year ago), Citigroup at $2.65 (up from $1.86), Wells Fargo at $1.85 (up from $1.66), and Goldman Sachs at $12.86 (up from $12.25). Overall third-quarter earnings at the largest banks are expected to rise up to 20% from last year, per Reuters.
Why are bank stocks falling ahead of strong earnings?
Bank shares have come under pressure as Treasury yields climbed to multidecade highs. The KBW Bank Index is down 13% from its August peak, and five major banks have lost roughly $270 billion in combined market value from summer peaks, per Bloomberg estimates. Investors worry higher rates will curb dealmaking, raise funding costs, and slow lending growth.
What should investors watch in the Q3 bank reports?
Key items: net interest income growth, trading and investment-banking revenue versus last quarter’s $51 billion peak, guidance on loan growth and deposit costs, and any signs of credit-quality deterioration — which analysts currently do not expect, according to Reuters.
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