U.S. stock futures edged higher Sunday evening as Wall Street prepared for a week short on catalysts but rich in signals, with the September Federal Reserve meeting minutes due Wednesday and earnings season picking up steam. The stock market week ahead October 2026 begins with S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%, and Dow futures ahead by 57 points just after 6 p.m. ET, according to Barron’s.
Last week ended mixed: the Dow fell 1.3% — 651.66 points — and the S&P 500 slipped 0.3% in its largest one-week point and percentage decline since the week ending September 11, while the Nasdaq rose nearly 0.5% for its third straight weekly gain, according to Barron’s, citing Dow Jones Market Data. For the year, the Dow is up 6.5%, the S&P 500 up 12.8%, and the Nasdaq up 17%.
Stock market week ahead October 2026: the calendar
Monday brings the ISM Services PMI for September, with economists expecting a reading of 55 — slightly below August’s level — according to Dow Jones Newswires via TradingView. Services activity has been the economy’s steadiest pillar, so any surprise could move rate expectations.
Wednesday is the week’s main event: the release of the FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting, when policymakers unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, according to TradingView and Dow Jones Newswires. With Friday’s weaker-than-expected jobs report in hand — the economy added just 29,000 jobs versus 84,000 expected, and unemployment ticked to 4.2% — investors will parse every line for hints about whether the October rate decision holds another hike.
Traders now price only a roughly 20–23% chance of another rate hike at the late-October meeting, down from 64–65% a week ago, according to TradingView and Investopedia. For context on Friday’s labor data, see our breakdown of the September jobs report miss.
Earnings ramp up: Delta, PepsiCo, Levi’s
The unofficial start of earnings season builds through the week. Constellation Brands and Lamb Weston report Tuesday, Levi Strauss follows Wednesday, and PepsiCo reports Thursday, according to Dow Jones Newswires. Delta Air Lines reports before the opening bell Friday — with EPS consensus of $1.96, up 14.6% year over year, and revenue of $17.7 billion — and 21 of 23 brokerages rate the stock a “strong buy,” according to Barchart and Schaeffer’s.
The official earnings season begins October 13 when the big banks report. Friday also brings the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, according to Dow Jones Newswires — an important read on household mood one month before the midterms.
Bond markets and the midterm backdrop
The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high of nearly 5.35% intraday last week before easing to around 5.23–5.30%, according to Econplex, citing the Associated Press, and Investopedia. Those record yields are the market’s overhang: they raise borrowing costs across the economy and set the discount rate against which every stock valuation is measured.
The political calendar adds texture. An AP/NORC poll found 82% of Americans disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and 73% disapprove of his handling of the economy — up from 66% in July — one month before the November 3 midterm elections, according to Barron’s. Wednesday’s Fed minutes and Friday’s sentiment data will be read through that lens.
What to watch Monday
With futures pointing modestly higher, Monday’s tone will be set by the ISM services report in the morning and by how investors position for the two catalysts that matter most: Wednesday’s minutes, which could reset October rate odds, and Friday’s Delta earnings and sentiment data, which will test whether consumers and corporate America are still holding up as borrowing costs sit at quarter-century highs.
Beyond the headline events, watch the Treasury market’s reaction to the minutes for any shift in how participants read the September hike — whether as a one-and-done insurance move or the restart of a tightening cycle. With an AP/NORC poll showing 82% of Americans disapproving of the White House’s handling of the cost of living one month before the midterms, any hint of policy hesitation could ripple through equities, bonds and the dollar in the same session.
FAQ
Are stock futures up or down this week?
U.S. stock futures rose Sunday evening: S&P 500 futures were up 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.2%, and Dow futures ahead 57 points just after 6 p.m. ET, according to Barron’s.
When are the Fed minutes released this week?
The FOMC minutes from the mid-September meeting — when policymakers unanimously raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%–4% — are released Wednesday, according to TradingView and Dow Jones Newswires.
Which companies report earnings this week?
Constellation Brands and Lamb Weston report Tuesday, Levi Strauss on Wednesday, PepsiCo on Thursday, and Delta Air Lines before Friday’s open (EPS consensus $1.96, revenue $17.7 billion). The big banks officially kick off earnings season on October 13, according to Dow Jones Newswires and Barchart.
What are the odds of another Fed rate hike in October?
After Friday’s weak jobs report (29,000 jobs added vs. 84,000 expected), traders price only a roughly 20–23% chance of another hike at the late-October meeting, down from 64–65% a week ago, according to TradingView and Investopedia.
Sources: Barron’s; TradingView; Investopedia; Barchart.
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